Indonesia plans to implement B40 in January

Because case, prices may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says

B40 will require extra 3 mln lots feedstock, GAPKI states

Malaysia palm oil benchmark at greatest because mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax trek amid inflation, Mistry says

(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil criteria price)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an expected drop this year, but costs are expected to remain elevated due to organized expansion of the nation's biodiesel mandate, industry analysts stated.

The palm oil standard price in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the compulsory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to imports.

Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric loads compared with a projected drop of just over a million tons this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research study firm Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million loads next year after a 2.5 million ton drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is anticipated to enhance, provide from in other places and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million loads in 2024.

"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The price rise in palm oil in the past seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke said, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said extra feedstock of around 3 million lots will be needed for B40 implementation, wearing down export supply.

The current palm oil premium has already triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.

Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment today is red-hot and very bullish, we need to be careful," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods business Godrej International.

He anticipated the Malaysian cost around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry prompted Indonesia to

think about postponing

B40 execution on issue about its influence on food consumers.

Meanwhile, Mistry expected leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import task walking

enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)