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The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a best 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars as of Monday afternoon.

"All the cash is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market as well. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The spoke to several bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very reputable gamer."

Although highly regarded cash has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are piling on Texas.
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"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.

While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We talked with multiple bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has crept up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I currently welcome any Boise State money."

Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before respected cash pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly greater bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
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"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has all been on the over so far.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the wagering action.
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Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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